By Emeka Alex Duru
Less than two years to the 2019 general elections, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), is ostensibly on heat. Or so it seems.
With the party copiously lacking in cohesion and failing in its pre-2015 pledge of fixing the country, APC has been under huge stress.
But what seems to be exerting much pressure on it currently, is the uncertainty of its arrowhead for 2019 politics.
Buhari’s candidacy and matters arising
Ordinarily, it would have been given for the President, Muhammadu Buhari, to be its presidential flag bearer in the election.
Though there is no constitutional prescription for this, it has been the norm since the second republic for the seating president to be granted the privilege of seeking a reelection on the platform of his party.
And in order to ensure that the tradition subsists, ruling parties had always organised conventions merely to ratify the candidature of the president. Even when there had been contests for the ticket, they had largely been easy runs for the incumbents.
President Shehu Shagari of the defunct National Party of Nigeria (NPN), enjoyed the privilege in 1983, while running for a second term. In the current dispensation, Olusegun Obasanjo picked the ticket of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), after a feeble contest with the likes of former Vice President, Alex Ekwueme and late Abubakar Rimi, while seeking reelection in 2003.
Even in 2015, Goodluck Jonathan, against stiff opposition from PDP members from the North, eventually got the ticket of the party, losing, however to Buhari in the main election.
Initial assumption was that Buhari would easily walk through that established path for another term. But less than two years to the contest, there are indications that the exercise may not be an easy ride for the retired general.
The President’s failing health, for one, has not helped his case. This year for instance, he had twice, been admitted in a London hospital, spending more than two months on each occasion.
This is aside being away for the same reason for over six weeks, last year. While he was away, governance was slow-paced, with a so-called cabal being on the loose, despite efforts by his deputy, Yemi Osinbajo to steer the ship of state.
Even in the president’s best of time, his job performance rating, has not been exciting. While the Minister of Information, Lai Mohammed claims that Buhari is delivering on his election promises to Nigerians, realities on ground differ with his assertions.
The administration has recorded commendable efforts at tackling the menace of Boko Haram terrorists that had before its inauguration, annexed over 14 councils in Borno State and made life rough in almost the entire north. Another area the government has laid claim of success, in area of agriculture.
Aside these two sectors, the government has not really brought itself to bear on the life of Nigerians. Among officials of the administration who volunteer comments anonymously, the blame is on the president and his analogous system of leadership.
Even his anti-corruption crusade that he had flaunted as the flagship of his administration, has been variously perforated by the selective approach that has characterised it. While Buhari roars when Nigerians of differing views or opposing political camps are involved, he loses his voice and claws when members of his party or close aides are involved.
There are, for example, high profile corruption cases involving his close friends and aides that have been lying on his table for quite some time. The case involving the suspended secretary to the federal government, David Babachir, is yet to be dispensed. There is also that involving the former director general of the Nigeria Intelligence Agency, Ayo Oke in the infamous Osborne apartment cash haul that ran into trillions of Naira. Of late, there has been allegations of contract award scam in Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), which in a letter by the minister of state (petroleum), Ibe Kachikwu, he made insinuation of the President being aware of the deals. In all these, Buhari has not directed the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), to wade in.
Buhari also have had to contend with allegations of nepotism in his appointments and policy initiative. Early in the week for instance, he was confronted with his directive to the World Bank, early in the life of the administration, to concentrate all its development efforts in the North.
While his officials laboured to situate the comment appropriately, Nigerians counted it among his tradition of favouring his northern region of birth in virtually all the actions of his administration.
Incidentally, the president, had shortly after his election, disclosed to foreign mediums that he should not be expected to extend equal treatment to those who gave him 97 percent of votes with those who gave him Five percent. His actions and utterances, had followed that provincial trend ever since.
In the gradual build up to the next election, even senior members of the APC are surreptitiously injecting these obvious inadequacies of the President to public consciousness to further whittle whatever remains of his grossly diminished mystique.
A newspaper editor, who seemed to read the unfolding development properly told this reporter, in an encounter, that the exercise at exposing the inadequacies of the president, is a carefully written script that is intended to make him unelectable. “It is an agenda, a well-funded and carefully scripted project to make him unelectable in 2019. The idea is to force the party deny him a second term ticket, if he fails to read the handwriting on the wall and excuse himself from the race”, he observed.
APC in disarray
What further compounds Buhari’s chances at going for another term on APC platform is the obvious disharmony in the party. With each day, even as a ruling party, APC has not failed to confirm the impression in some quarters that it is a mere assemblage of power-seekers who do not know what to do with their offices.
At various layers and organs of the party, that culture of disharmony has manifested. The APC and National Assembly (NASS) leadership, where it has the majority, are at daggers drawn. The Presidency is also working at cross-purposes with NASS caucus of the party. The leadership of the party, cannot also be said to be on the same page with the presidency. This perhaps, informs, why critics describe the three as “trinity of confusion”.
As if this is it not enough, other key organs of APC that should have acted as the conscience of the party, such as the National Executive Committee (NEC), and Board of Trustees are yet to meet, more than two years of Buhari’s presidency.
Obviously frustrated by the turn of things, a chieftain of the party, Buba Galadima, recently lamented that if he were to be the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the ruling party would have been deregistered because its handlers have refused to abide by the rules they set.
Galadima, who spoke with the Hausa Service of the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), had argued that the party’s certificate of registration deserved to be withdrawn because three years after its establishment, APC could not hold a single Board of Trustees (BoT) meeting, and has also failed to deliver on any of its promises.
“APC does not deserve to be a political party. Its constitution clearly states that the BoT, the National Executive Committee (NEC) and the National Working Committee must meet once every three months.
“Now, since the registration of the party, was there any time that the BoT met? The party never referred to its founding fathers to gauge their mood and to know their feelings on whether it is on the right track or not”, he said.
Key members of the party, blame Buhari for this undemocratic culture, explaining it on his inability to put things in order and the know-all, father-figure carriage that he advertises.
South West APC on rampage
It is perhaps, in a bid to assert itself and let the president realise that his second term ticket, is not yet, a done deal, that the south west zone of the party, has ruled out automatic ticket for anybody in 2019.
At a meeting comprising leading members of the zone, including governors and ministers, in Ibadan on Thursday, October 12, former Interim National Chairman of the party, Bisi Akande, had declared that the party’s ticket for the 2019 presidential election remains open to contenders, especially as the President is yet to indicate interest for a second-term.
Though the National Publicity Secretary of the party, Bolaji Abdullahi, had in a statement, accused Akande of merely speaking for himself, TheNiche, learnt on good authority that the former interim chairman, must have spoken on the basis of an understanding that was reached by the facilitators of the party at its formation in 2014.
A source had told this reporter that at the consummation of the alliance that gave rise to APC, it was agreed that after Buhari must have held power for his Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) for four years, the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) will take over for another four years.
A member of the National Executive Committee (NEC), and Political Secretary of the Northern socio-cultural group, Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), Mohammed Abdulrahman, confirmed the existence of this pact, in an interview with a Lagos newspaper, Sunday Sun in its, October 15, 2019 edition.
In obvious broadside at those calling on Buhari to re-contest in 2019, he warned, “We must not lose sight of the fact that it was an alliance that brought him in. The North and Buhari must get serious and behave themselves. Nigeria does not belong to the North because if you maintain the position, grandstanding that the North is powerful in Nigeria, you are wasting your time and Nigeria would collapse and crash”.
He added, “Without the alliance, Buhari would never have been president. Is it not Tinubu’s ACN and CPC alliance that brought Buhari to government? If they did not follow the alliance Buhari would not have been relevant to governance. The criterion for the alliance is that every party to the alliance will have four years”.
It is gathered that it is this understanding that fuels speculations of the presidential ambition of former Lagos State governor, Bola Tinubu. Though Tinubu has not made any statement on the topic, his mind is said to have been made on going for the office.
In fact, in a session with a former governor and Tinubu’s contemporary, he disclosed that the former Lagos governor had confided in him that having operated as kingmaker for quite some time, it is time for him to take a shot at the office.
Two quick scenarios are being envisaged in the event of Tinubu making good his vow. One is a pronounced split in APC along Buhari and Tinubu camps. That may be followed by the former governor and his supporters moving out of the party or remaining in it without working for it at the national level. Whichever way the uncertain development tilts, APC may turn out the loser.
