By Ishaya Ibrahim, News Editor
Elder statesman, Prof. Anya O. Anya, has predicted that things are bound to go from bad to worse in the country because “we have not started planning for the Nigeria that can solve the problem of poverty.”
The economy has gone south under the watch of President Muhammadu Buhari and his administration has not done anything to effectively create and sustain wealth to reverse the trend.
“A country must get onto the path of fast-paced development if it is to run away from poverty,” said Anya, a chartered biologist, and former Chief Executive Officer of Nigeria Economic Summit Group (NESG).
“Fast-paced development means that your GDP growth rate must be at least above 7.5 per cent. Because at that level of GDP, an economy doubles every 10 years and until you get into that groove that your economy doubles every 10 years, you haven’t started,” he told TheNiche in an exclusive interview.
But Anya insisted that in the case of Nigeria with a population growth rate of almost 4 per cent, even 7.5 GDP growth rate is not enough.
“Our population is growing at nearly 4 per cent, while the latest figures that World Bank has released say our GDP is growing at 1.8 per cent. In other words, the people coming into poverty are more than those who are not.
“So you must add that 4 per cent to the 7.5 per cent. Nigeria’s minimum GDP growth rate, if we are serious, must be at 11 per cent. You do not hear our economists talking about that and you do not hear anybody with that responsibility in government today aware that those are the realities on the ground.
“1.8 to 11 per cent means we are growing at less than one-tenth of what we should be growing at now. And we are talking about development. We are talking about infrastructure. That is why we are drowning in debts.”
Anya also picked holes in the drift of Senate President Ahmad Lawan that borrowing was the only option left for Nigeria in the circumstance.
Lawan, briefing journalists after a closed-door meeting with Buhari in Abuja on Thursday, said: “The only option left is for us to borrow responsibly, utilise prudently and economically, and ensure that the projects are self-sustaining; that they can pay back the loans.”
But though this interview was conducted a week before Lawan’s comment, Anya seemed to have a tailored-made answer when he spoke about the repayment of loans.
Said he: “Looking at this government from outside, all I see is when in trouble, borrow. And who will pay?”
Countering Lawan’s argument on responsible use of loans, Anya said: “Take the case of Niger Republic, what is that economic value that is going to be transferred from Niger Republic into Nigeria?
“Do you know what their GDP is? Do you know their ranking in terms of poverty level? So, your train to Maradi will bring back more poverty not wealth.
“You create wealth out of competition that increases productivity on the basis of merit. And then, out of that, if your social values include honesty, then you start moving, and as you move, because you are creating greater wealth and sharing it equitably, more and more people will get wealthier.
“The poor will get fewer and fewer until everybody is out of the poverty bracket. There is no other way to do it. If there is, it has not been discovered.”
He insisted that Nigeria’s debt, federal and state, which stood at N32.9 trillion ($86.8 billion) at the end of 2020, had become unsustainable and an existential threat.
“You cannot sustain that level of debt especially when from the same government sources you find out that 60 to 70 per cent of all your earnings goes into servicing debts.
“Servicing, I didn’t say repaying debt. You have to service them to pay the interest before you start repayment. We are not repaying anything right now, so the debt will continue to increase.
“And as we get to the point where more and more of our recurrent budget takes all the revenues that come in, where are you going to repay from and how are you going to stabilise your economy?
“There will be no production any longer and the level of criminality, which is growing, tells the whole story because half of the people who are involved in some of these terrible things have been pushed beyond survival.
“I am not now saying that people should steal because they are hungry but what is the alternative that you can give to them?”
