In third successive nationwide poll, 72% say Obi is best able to solve Nigeria’s problems
By Jeph Ajobaju, Chief Copy Editor
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“Three-quarters of respondents said that their country is heading in the ‘wrong direction.’
“A combined 88% listed the economy and jobs, corruption, and security – three pillars of the campaign that brought Buhari to power in 2015 – as the most important issues facing their communities.
“More than 65% named Obi as the candidate best able to improve the economy, tackle corruption and reduce insecurity. Tinubu ranked second on each measure, ahead of Atiku ….
“Most respondents said that they trust the election to be run fairly and think their vote will make a difference – even if almost half expect the polls to be marred by violence” – Bloomberg News opinion poll result.
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An opinion poll Bloomberg News conducted through Premise Data Corp places Peter Obi way atop the three-horse race to the Villa with 72 per cent of 3,973 “registered and decided voters” saying they will vote for the candidate of the Labour Party (LP).
A total 88 per cent of respondents surveyed said the three issues most important to them are the economy and jobs, corruption, and security – and expressed belief Obi is the best equipped to solve them.
Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) got 16 per cent of decided voters, meaning he is 56 points adrift of Obi. Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has 9 per cent, or 63 points behind the favourite.
The Bloomberg survey is the third successive (scientific) opinion poll in two weeks to reveal that Obi is the preferred choice of the plurality of Nigerians to be the next President – if the election is not rigged as was always the case in past elections.
All the three surveys cannot be wrong, even though the Tinubu Campaign distorted facts to scoff at the first one NOI Polls published on 15 September. We2Geda published the second on 27 September.
Both NOI Polls and We2Geda are based in Nigeria.
But Bloomberg News, a global media outlet that provides business and economic news, is based in New York, and Premise Data has its headquarters in San Francisco, both of them in the United States.
NOI Polls result
The NOI Polls scientific survey, which was commissioned by Anap Foundation, shows Obi leading the pack with 21 per cent of respondents saying they would vote for him if the ballot were done today.
Tinubu and Atiku each got 13 per cent to come joint second, both of them 8 percentage points adrift of Obi.
Rabiu Kwankwaso, the presidential candidate of the Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), came a distant fourth with 3 per cent.
APC Presidential Campaign Council (PCC) Media and Publicity Director Bayo Onanuga, who works for Tinubu, dismissed NOI Polls surveys as dubious, unrealistic, and inconsistent.
Onanuga cited election results in 2015 and 2019, which he said NOI Polls predicted wrongly, without acknowledging notorious and pervasive rigging in all the presidential votes held in Nigeria since 1999 and beyond.
Election rigging distorts reality.
If most of the electorate disclose in a survey they will vote for a particular candidate, and they actually do so on Election Day, but the result is rigged, then the opinion poll is not wrong and cannot be faulted.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has pledged that electronic transmission of result from polling units, which has reduced the chances of vote rigging since at least 2020, will be used in the 2023 ballot.
Onanuga also ignored the fact Obi is popular with the youth who constitute 71 per cent of new registered voters.
We2Geda poll result
The second scientific opinion poll published on Tuesday by We2Geda gives Obi 51 per cent, Atiku (25 per cent), and Tinubu (19 per cent).
We2Geda said it randomly surveyed 15,438 registered voters in the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).
It explained the survey was done entirely through fully randomised direct phone calls in local languages, to achieve real representation of registered voters across Nigeria.
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Related articles:
Massive youthful energy powers off Obi’s campaign in Jos
Atiku ridicules Tinubu, says he’s not marketable
Tinubu bombs Atiku, says he is desperate, ill-prepared for presidency
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ThisDay (unscientific) survey result
ThisDay announced last week the result of a survey conducted by its reporters across the country puts the three candidates neck and neck, with pluses and minuses for each candidate in different zones.
But the newspaper explained the poll was not scientific.
The Economist Intelligence Unit (unscientific) prediction
Also last week, the Economist Intelligence Unit predicted a win for Tinubu, based on its own analysis of some factors.
The prediction is based on analysis of certain factors, not on a scientific survey of the intention of voters.
Bloomberg News survey result
The story Bloomberg News published on Wednesday on its scientific survey result is reproduced below:
A third-party candidate is the top choice to become the next president of Africa’s most populous country, according to a new opinion poll.
A clear majority of respondents said they intend to vote for Peter Obi, a former state governor, in elections scheduled for February.
The results of the survey conducted for Bloomberg News by Premise Data Corp were published on Wednesday as the official campaign to succeed President Muhammadu Buhari kicked off.
Of the 92% of participants who said they’ve decided how to vote, 72% named Obi as their first choice. Of those who are still unsure, 45% said the 61-year-old is their preferred candidate.
Presidential Race
Poll shows Obi is most-favored candidate before February election
The San Francisco-headquartered data company surveyed 3,973 Nigerians from September 5-20.
Respondents to the app-based poll were selected from quotas developed by age, gender and location across the country’s six geopolitical zones. Results were then weighted against the original quotas to ensure national representation.
About 44% of Nigerians own smartphones, according to the Alliance for Affordable Internet.
The candidates of the two parties that have ruled Nigeria since the restoration of democracy in 1999 fared less well.
Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress garnered 16% of decided voters and 23% of those yet to make up their minds. Atiku Abubakar of the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party tallied 9% and 17% respectively.
A former two-term governor of the southeastern Anambra state, Obi is running on the ticket of the Labour Party, which won a single seat in the Senate and House of Representatives in the last election in 2019. The APC and PDP dominate both chambers of parliament.
‘Obidient’ Followers
In a relatively short time, Obi has built up an enthusiastic base known as “Obidients” – initially online, but increasingly in the streets – who aim to cause an upset on Feb. 25.
Still, the Labour Party has a much smaller nationwide presence than the two rival parties, which are experienced at turning out voters across the vast West African country.
Obi’s supporters will need to rapidly scale up their organizational infrastructure if they’re to capitalize on the campaign’s momentum.
Obi originally sought the PDP’s nomination before withdrawing from a party election that Atiku, a former vice president and perennial presidential candidate, won in May.
Tinubu, who used to govern the commercial hub of Lagos and is the most influential politician in southwestern Nigeria, triumphed by a landslide in the APC’s primaries the following month.
The five-month race to the general elections gets underway as Nigerians contend with soaring inflation, a plunging currency and pervasive insecurity.
Production of the economy’s historical mainstay – crude oil – has also slumped to multi-decade lows, while the Buhari administration’s debt service bill in the first quarter of the year exceeded the revenue it was able to earn.
Three-quarters of respondents said that their country is heading in the “wrong direction.”
A combined 88% listed the economy and jobs, corruption, and security – three pillars of the campaign that brought Buhari to power in 2015 – as the most important issues facing their communities.
Campaign Issues
Voters are most concerned about economy and jobs, corruption
More than 65% named Obi as the candidate best able to improve the economy, tackle corruption and reduce insecurity. Tinubu ranked second on each measure, ahead of Atiku.
Obi also came out in front in two other opinion polls published since September 15.
Despite the general disenchantment about Nigeria’s trajectory, most respondents said that they trust the election to be run fairly and think their vote will make a difference – even if almost half expect the polls to be marred by violence.
